My performance for the year is +12.8%.
contributors that I sold are Cimpress, Xilam, Seritage. etc . 17 had its lot of mistakes/bad luck like LILAC, Criteo, Sears, liberty global.
My portfolio at year end 17, and going into 18 is quite strong, as the mistakes are very small now in proportion.
Odet+Bollore: The French holding company divested its Havas advertising shares to Vivendi which it owns a large minority stake and which it controls. Vivendi is now consolidated. Good developments at Vivendi with Universal Music setting on a long term path to growth, and great logistics assets in Africa also ready for the long term growth of the continent. The shares recovered from the oil crisis but remain very undervalued.
PayPal: PayPal had a great year in 2017 and it went from undervalued to richly valued. I trimmed my position to build new positions in Tech and will keep the rest as a long term holding. PayPal will grow for years to come and is also directly benefiting from rate rises on inflation.
Softbank; In 2017 its performance was flattish, but good operational developments with the vision fund and the Japan telco. Still very undervalued.
Exor; This holding company had a relatively flat performance while its investments grew very well. Therefore it is even more undervalued now. Some reinsurance costs with the hurricanes that affected the USA and the Caribbean. Positive on Exor and believe it its value creation for the long term.
Cosan Limited; Positive results for Cosan. Volatile share price because it is Brazilian. A very undervalued collection of assets in energy, agriculture and infrastructure in Brazil. Cosan management knows its undervalued and bought back 13% of the shares in a tender at the end of the year. It also bought back stakes in a JV with Shell. This is great value creation.
Altisource Portfolio Solutions ; The shares tanked following a weirdly politically motivated regulator attack against ocwen in 2017. This is getting settled rather quickly state by state but it is not over. Other than this, the company is growing its large margin financial and technological solutions well, as well as its business intelligence and marketplace start-ups. The share finished flat for the year and I am still at a loss on my purchases of several years ago. Next year should see more operational improvements for this very undervalued company.
Goodwin PLC; I am still at a loss on my purchases of this industrial growth company. It was affected by the crisis in Oil and Gas. It recovered well in 2017 and is still undervalued. I consider that the Oil and Gas investment market is currently at an unsustainable low in order to maintain or even grow production. Therefore the normalised earnings of Goodwin are at least double of now. On top of that, Goodwin is growing well in refractory, nuclear and emerging market infrastructure.
This bakery and fast food company remains very cheap while growing revenue at around 10% a year through capital reinvestment, and ebitda much faster with its operating leverage. With defensive products and expansion in mineral water, Poulaillon is promising.
The south african telco giant is well placed in South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Iran, countries that will benefit from Oil demand and emerging middle class growth. It also uses its presence to launch digital services to its 200 millions and growing customers, and own stakes in leading local online marketplaces. On top of that, it is very cheap.
A growing attractions business, a challenged but profitable hotel business, and the strategy to capture more and more bookingd directly. All that for a good price, and tripadvisor will be a great investment for years. Currently unloved by the market.
Less exciting than Tripadvisor in terms of growth, it also is very cheap in terms of free cash flow, and has options with homeaway and emerging markets investments.
Koovs: A challenging year for the indian startup in the stock market, with demonetization and sale tax in india affecting the sales. However with a top management and long term focus, I have no doubt about the ability to deliver. One key risk; dillution at low prices.
The stock was flat this year despite huge operational improvement and the entry of Fairfax Africa as a long term shareholder and board member. The emerging Bank is set for decades of growth in africa. And it sells for half the post Oil crisis book value.
A leading european OTA in the flights sector, has nearly doubled this year and remains cheap at less than 10 times Fcf.
Relatively positive performance for a Singapore based conglomerate with conservative management, a struggling energy branch, a lot of net cash on the balance sheet, and two nice industrial real estates and aerial mapping business. A free cash flow generative business that grows value in the long term.
Mahindra & Mahindra
Positive performance for a very well run indian conglomerate, with access to the giant emerging middle class in the country. It has an average car/trucks business, minority investments and start ups. It proved that with its experience and synergies it can turn a start up to a business line. It has a reasonable price.
Positive year for Valeant as the market realises that it is very cheap and here to stay. I have confidence In the future because Valeant main lines of business can now grow.
Positive year for judges. While not extremely undervalued, it will continue to purchase specialty companies on the cheap with debt and therefore grow earnings.
Terrible year with the hurricanes destroying infrastructure and the expensive cwc acquisition. I am not certain about its future as the company does not produce free cash flow. Some of the business is strong but the money will go to rebuild the lost infrastructure in Puerto Rico.
Very good year for Jd. JD is a juggernaut and should be valued as such, but its “only” worth 60b. This is for a company with similar gmv to alibaba, and excellent logistics that it can sell to third party, and huge possibilities to cross sell thanks to a massive user base.
Terrible year with no significant improvement in profitability and service revenue decreasing also. I am in it for the long term as some business lines are profitable but the new business has not yet showed much profitability. It could be a outperformer or just a leftover of past mistakes
Criteo had a bad year with apple blocking it on safari, affecting 22% of revenues. The share price tanked. It should keep developing the rest of the business well and therefore I view it as a share with strong potential.
Good year for Baidu, which remains fairly valued based on the search business alone. On top of that Baidu is developing AI very strongly and has interests in ctrip and iqiwi, not priced in currently.
BP in the family portfolio– I am positive on oil and gas, and bp will also benefit from the reduction of the infamous gulf oil spill. On top of that it remains undervalued compared to the oil majors and pays a juicy dividend.